Cross-sector collaboration within Dutch flood risk governance: historical analysis of external triggers

ABSTRACT

This article synthesizes the literature on Dutch flood risk governance to analyze how external conditions shaped past and present dynamics of cross-sector collaboration for integrated flood risk management in the Netherlands. It traces the extent to which policy and legal frameworks, socio-economic circumstances, political realities, power relations and conflict situations have influenced attempts at collaboration between flood safety, spatial planning, environmental protection and other sectors. Despite the growing interdependences, existing power relations between the sectors are characterized by the dominance of the water sector. Hence, cross-sector collaboration can develop as long as it does not compromise flood safety.     

基于温度冲击的冷冻靶氘氘冰层结晶生长行为研究

惯性约束聚变冷冻靶中氘氘（D₂）冰层的质量对聚变实验的成功与否起重要作用。目前文献报道的制备冷冻靶D₂冰层的方法并不具备好的可操作性，且技术、工艺不定型，制约了高质量冰层的形成。因此，本文采用将温度梯度、降温速率和温度冲击相结合的技术实现燃料冰层在靶丸内的均化。通过温度控制以及施加温度冲击可控地形成残留冰，并在残留冰的控制技术基础上，实现了高质量冰层的可控结晶生长。同时，研究了温度控制对靶丸内D₂冰层品质的影响和D₂冰层结晶生长的过程，并应用晶体生长动力学理论分析了D₂冰层结晶生长行为。从背光阴影图像中的D₂冰层亮环可知，D₂冰层均匀度为85.2%、厚度为40.35 μm、内表面粗糙度为2.15 μm。本方法拓宽了超低温下D₂冰籽晶控制、晶体生长技术，为DT冷冻靶中冰层均化打下了坚实基础，并形成了一定的技术储备。     

高寒列车转向架防冰涂料的研究

在高寒地区运行的列车转向架部位容易发生结冰现象，这在一定程度上对行车安全造成隐患。对于平滑表面而言，表面的接触角滞后与冰粘附强度呈现线性关系，即接触角滞后越小，冰粘附强度越低。基于这一基础理论，本文意在构建低滞后的光滑涂层，实现涂层的低冰粘附强度，从而达到易除冰的效果。研究选用 HDI三聚体型多异氰酸酯为固化剂，对比了 3种商品化具有低表面能特性的含氟羟基树脂应用于双组分防冰涂料的性能差异，并采用疏水性最强、防冰性能最优的氟硅树脂制备了综合性能优异的高寒列车转向架防冰涂料。     

Cloud asset for urban flood control

The performance of physical assets has become a major determinant success factor for urban flood control. However, managing these assets is always challenging as there are a huge number of diverse assets involved, which are distributed throughout the city, and owned by different agencies. Aiming at improving the management efficiency of these assets, and ensuring their performance, this paper proposes the concept of cloud asset based on cloud computing, mobile agent, and various smart devices. Through hardware integration and software encapsulation, cloud asset could sense its real-time status, adapt to varied working scenarios, be controlled remotely, and shared among agencies. It enables accurate real-time control of every asset, and thus improves the management efficiency and effectiveness. This paper first presents the concept of cloud asset with its technical architecture, and then analyses the software agent model for cloud asset, which is the key enabler to realize UPnP (Universal Plug and Play) management of assets, and provides mobility and intelligence for them. After that, the framework of cloud asset-enabled workflow management is built, in which cloud asset could be easily found and dynamically invoked by different workflows. Finally, a demonstrative case is provided to verify the effectiveness of cloud asset.     

Optimal resilient power grid operation during the course of a progressing wildfire

We study a two-stage stochastic and nonlinear optimization model for operating a power grid exposed to a natural disaster. Although this approach can be generalized to any natural hazard of continuous (and not instantaneous) nature, our focus is on wildfires. We assume that an approaching wildfire impacts the power grid by reducing the transmission capacity of its overhead lines. At the time when proactive decisions have to be taken, the severity of the wildfire is not known. This introduces uncertainty. In this paper, we extend previous work by more realistically capturing this uncertainty and by strengthening the mathematical programming formulation through standard reformulation techniques. With these reformulation techniques, the resulting two-stage, convex mixed-integer quadratically constrained programming formulation can be efficiently solved using commercial quadratic programming solvers as demonstrated on a case study on a modified version of the IEEE 123-bus test system with 100 scenarios. We also quantify the uncertainties through a second case study using the following three standard metrics of two-stage stochastic optimization: the expected value of perfect information, the expected result of using the expected value solution and the value of the stochastic solution.     

Assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of a flood event through the integration of spatial and computable general equilibrium modelling

In this paper we developed and tested an integrated methodology for assessing direct and indirect economic impacts of flooding. The methodology combines a spatial analysis of the damage to the physical stock with a general economic equilibrium approach using a regionally-calibrated (to Italy) version of a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) global model. We applied the model to the 2000 Po river flood in Northern Italy. To account for the uncertainty in the induced effects on regional economies, we explored three disruption and two recovery scenarios. The results highlight that: i) the flood event produces indirect losses in the national economic system, which are a significant share of the direct losses, and ii) the methodology is able to capture both positive and negative economic effects of the disaster in different areas of the same country. The assessment of indirect impacts, in particular, is essential for a full understanding of the economic outcomes of natural disasters.     

Data‐driven model for river flood forecasting based on a Bayesian network approach

Uncertainty analysis of hydrological models often requires a large number of model runs, which can be time consuming and computationally intensive. In order to reduce the number of runs required for uncertainty prediction, Bayesian networks (BNs) are used to graphically represent conditional probability dependence between the set of variables characterizing a flood event. Bayesian networks (BNs) are relevant due to their capacity to handle uncertainty, combine statistical data and expertise and introduce evidences in real‐time flood forecasting. In the present study, a runoff–runoff model is considered. The discharge at a gauging station located is estimated at the outlet of a basin catchment based on discharge measurements at the gauging stations upstream. The BN model shows good performances in estimating the discharges at the basin outlet. Another application of the BN model is to be used as a reverse method. Knowing discharges values at the outlet of the basin, we can propagate back these values through the model to estimate discharges at upstream stations. This turns out to be a practical method to fill the missing data in streamflow records which are critical to the sustainable management of water and the development of hydrological models.     

Evaluating the role of resilience in reducing economic losses from disasters: A multi-regional analysis of a seaport disruption

Models to estimate economic impacts of disasters have recently been augmented to include resilience. However, most research has incorporated only a limited set of resilience tactics and has not estimated their individual loss reduction effect. We present a comprehensive framework for estimating the relative effects of a broad set of post-disaster resilience tactics. Our methodological innovation is illustrated by adapting the TERM multi-regional CGE model for a seaport disruption, distinguishing inherent resilience working through the price system from adaptive resilience and other inherent tactics to cope with input shortages. We also overcome a path-dependency problem in the modelling process.     

Creating an Holistic Emergency Alert Management Platform

ABSTRACT

Extreme natural events require effective emergency procedures to minimize adverse effects on a region’s population and economy. Such procedures typically involve the effort of several different teams of first responders (e.g., fire fighters, public administrations, police departments, utility companies), hence coordination is fundamental to the effectiveness of the response to the emergency that must be supported with adequate infrastructures. Nonetheless, first responders often rely on manual processes, in the life cycle of extreme events, which do not change consistently with the type of shock or affected population. The aim of this paper is to present a technology transfer process to improve both the emergency alert process and the knowledge of disaster-type safety procedures through the implementation of a proposed platform. We also highlight a pilot application on a post-disaster case study—the province of L’Aquila (Abruzzi) in Italy.     

淮河入江水道行洪能力分析

入江水道是淮河下游最大的泄洪河道,承担着淮河上中游70%以上的洪水泄入长江。根据1961—2018年大洪水期间的实测资料,利用水位流量法计算分析入江水道的泄洪能力和防洪能力。结果表明:因历史客观条件限制以及4个梯级控制河段整治的难度与复杂性,在不同时期各控制河段的行洪能力呈现各自不同的特点;经过多年持续有效治理,河道行洪能力整体得到提高;由近年来实测资料推算,各控制河段的行洪能力基本达到设计要求。对入江水道行洪能力的分析为淮河下游区的防汛抗洪和降低特大洪水威胁提供借鉴和参考,对区域经济社会又好又快发展具有现实意义。